02/28 09:11 - Difference between in-sample and out-of-sample during the WFA

Yesterday we talked about Walk-Forward Analysis. Today we want to explain how to calculate the WFA ...

Difference between in-sample and out-of-sample during the WFA

Walk-Forward Analysis, as written yesterday, is a particular technic of optimization made up of several periods: in-sample and out-of-sample. In-sample is the period for the classic optimization, while second is the period for to apply the best parameters got out from in-saple period. So WFA is a step-by-step optimization: we take a first period and we calculate the classic optimization, moreover we apply the best parameters and we evaluate the performance report of this period. We repeate these operation up till end of prices series. See the pdf report in the article of yesterday.

Source of image: http://www.multicharts.com/walk-forward-testing/

Yesterday we closed a position on mini-dow jones Futures contract, so now we can also follow this market.

Below you can see our opened positions on basis portfolio:

The signals of the day are:

Signals

  • Buy 1 @AD @ 1.0181 Stop Market
    5/7/2012 9:16:29 AM
  • Buy to Cover 1 @AD @ 1.0181 Stop Market
    5/7/2012 9:16:29 AM
  • Buy to Cover 1 @AD @ 0.9974 Limit
    5/7/2012 9:16:29 AM
  • Buy to Cover 1 @QM @ 108.125 Stop Market
    4/28/2012 2:45:48 AM
  • Buy to Cover 1 @QM @ 100.050 Limit
    4/28/2012 2:45:48 AM
  • Buy 1 @E7 @ 1.3397 Stop Market
    4/28/2012 2:46:09 AM
  • Sell Short 1 @E7 @ 1.3115 Stop Market
    4/28/2012 2:46:09 AM
  • Sell 1 @AD @ 1.0595 Limit
    4/28/2012 2:46:39 AM
  • Sell 1 @AD @ 1.0295 Stop Market
    4/28/2012 2:46:39 AM
  • Sell Short 1 @AD @ 1.0295 Stop Market
    4/28/2012 2:46:39 AM
  • Sell Short 1 @YI @ 30.551 Stop Market
    4/28/2012 8:56:59 AM
  • Buy 1 @E7 @ 1.3320 Stop Market
    4/27/2012 8:38:49 AM
  • Sell Short 1 @E7 @ 1.3134 Stop Market
    4/27/2012 8:38:49 AM
  • Sell 1 @AD @ 1.0587 Limit
    4/27/2012 8:39:13 AM
  • Sell Short 1 @AD @ 1.0249 Stop Market
    4/27/2012 8:39:13 AM
  • Sell 1 @AD @ 1.0249 Stop Market
    4/27/2012 8:39:13 AM
  • Sell Short 1 @YI @ 30.241 Stop Market
    4/27/2012 8:39:14 AM
  • Buy to Cover 1 @YI @ 31.672 Stop Market
    4/24/2012 11:08:34 AM
  • Buy to Cover 1 @YI @ 28.380 Limit
    4/24/2012 11:08:34 AM
  • Buy to Cover 1 @YI @ 28.503 Limit
    4/25/2012 9:03:30 AM
  • Buy to Cover 1 @YI @ 31.141 Stop Market
    4/26/2012 8:47:46 AM
  • Buy to Cover 1 @YI @ 28.293 Limit
    4/26/2012 8:47:46 AM
  • Buy to Cover 1 @QM @ 108.80 Stop Market
    4/23/2012 12:07:31 PM
  • Buy to Cover 1 @QM @ 98.78 Limit
    4/23/2012 12:07:31 PM
  • Buy to Cover 1 @YI @ 31.67 Stop Market
    4/23/2012 12:07:59 PM
  • Buy to Cover 1 @YI @ 28.56 Limit
    4/23/2012 12:07:59 PM
  • Sell Short 1 @YI @ 31.105 Stop Market
    4/21/2012 8:46:28 AM
  • Buy to Cover 1 @QM @ 110.68 Stop Market
    4/19/2012 3:37:14 PM
  • Buy to Cover 1 @QM @ 98.40 Limit
    4/19/2012 3:37:14 PM
  • Sell 1 @AD @ 1.06 Limit
    4/19/2012 3:37:26 PM